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Different Potential Successions in the Ottoman Empire: Where to Start?
The history of the Ottoman Empire has been one of the most interesting ones to ever read up upon because its legacy can still be seen, even to this day. From the cuisines found in the Balkans (cevapi comes to mind, as well as the drink rakiya/rakija) to the mosques that still stands today in that region, and even some Turkish loanwords that may be found in certain languages, the Ottoman Empire has been an empire that is both beloved and hated. Yet I am not here to talk about the cuisines, the architectures or even some trivial tidbits that are not well known. I am here to talk about some certain aspects of its history and why it turned out that way when other alternative scenarios could have made it better. So technically this blog will both be a factual and counter-factual post (or alternate history if you prefer).
Where to start? I would normally pose questions on who could have been a much better successor to whichever Sultan was reigning, but in this case let's focus on potential successions to a certain Sultan, Suleiman the Magnificent. Suleiman's reign was most notable with the Ottoman Empire reaching its Golden Age of sorts, mainly because he built upon the previous accomplishments of his father, Yavuz Sultan Selim I (Selim the Grim, if anyone isn't familiar with the word Yavuz). Moreover, he possesses two most prestigious bloodlines ever in the history of the Ottoman Empire. His father Selim I came from the House of Osman, and his mother Ayse Hafsa Sultan came from the House of Giray, a Genghisid dynasty that ruled the three successor states to the fallen Golden Horde: Crimea, Kazan and Astrakhan. So one could easily deduce that Suleiman the Magnificent is a distant descendant of Genghis Khan himself. However, he is most famous for his romances with two famous women, Mahidevran and Hurrem. You're asking yourself by now, 'can you get to the main part of the blog, please?' I sure will, just after giving a quick rundown on Suleiman's background. His territories extended into Hungary in Europe, the Caucasus and expanded some of his domains in North Africa.
Yet Suleiman was a Sultan whose father had a tradition of a messy succession because the competition for the Ottoman throne is frankly speaking, brutal and deadly as an entire story of Game of Thrones (though I will eventually try to watch it). Princes often kill each other to win the ultimate prize, and once the victorious prince wins the throne, he kills his brothers and their sons to prevent any additional rebellions against his reign. It is also more important to know that the victorious prince who gains the throne also allows his Valide Sultan (Queen Mother) to rule the harem. From among the harem, any lucky girl can give birth to a son and she becomes the favored concubine, and should the lucky girl's son become the next sultan, she becomes the Valide Sultan. Now comes the good part: the sultan is expected to sire more than just one son from a woman chosen for him. Because the harem consisted of girls plucked from all corners of the Ottoman Empire, the Sultan would be presented with a random girl. Any girl could come from a humble background or from a prestigious nobility, as was the case of Mahidevran Sultan (though her origins are disputed). Hurrem Sultan is one of the examples of a girl who comes from a humble background, in this case as the daughter of an Orthodox priest in Ruthenia (then a part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth). Ayse Hafsa Sultan, as mentioned earlier, comes from an extremely prestigious nobility, and in this case, it's the Genghisid Girays.
By the time Suleiman's sons had grown up, competition for the throne begins with the murder of one of the sons. In our timeline, it was Prince Mehmet (first born son of Suleiman from his love affair with Hurrem) who was killed in 1543. The competition continues on forward until the winner turned out to be Selim II (known as Selim the Sot, or the Drunk because he liked to drink). This is the crux of the matter: I personally believed that the decline of the Ottoman Empire lay with the succession of Selim II because while his reign was rather short (eight years, though I challenge anyone to tell me which Sultan had a much shorter reign than Selim II), his son Murad III was one of the worst sultans ever. Under Murad III, the Ottoman Empire had gotten itself into two simultaneous wars on two separate fronts with their military might on the breaking point (sounds familiar?). Selim II was also known for giving Janissaries permission to have families of their own, which in itself was one major mistake as it sapped the entire Janissary corps' fighting abilities, which eventually led to a series of Janissary revolts that was only managed to be suppressed in the 1800s. The real question is, who should have succeeded Suleiman BESIDES Selim II? Now here's a rundown on potential candidates:
1) Prince Mustafa: As the eldest son of Suleiman, Mustafa was the obvious choice to succeed him. He was much beloved by the Janissaries, and he had powerful backers like Pargali Ibrahim Pasha who would definitely support his reign. He was probably talented in warfare and he had honor and integrity. There was just one problem: he was the only son of Suleiman and Mahidevran Sultan, and as Hurrem eventually gave birth to four sons and a daughter, Mahidevran's position is somehow untenable. It was because of Hurrem's mastery of political maneuvering that Mustafa's supporters were removed through subtle or brutal means, his succession became a matter of whether or not it was possible. In addition, his honor and integrity was a double edged sword, as he doesn't know how to play the game of political intrigue. How he walked straight into his death was out of character for him, as even his mother warned him that the meeting with his father was a trap and yet he fell for it.
Had Mustafa's succession been successful, he could still have gone on the same warpath as his father, but more focused on conquering parts of Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. It is not known how Mustafa will fare on the domestic side, but we can only guess how capable he can be in the international diplomatic arena.
2) Prince Bayezid: It is worth noting that Bayezid was a much more talented military leader than his brother Selim. Even though he was defeated in Konya by Selim's forces in 1558, he still managed to win against an advancing army led by Sokollu Mehmet Pasha with the intention to capture him. Unfortunately, he was executed after Shah Tahmasp I extradited him and his entire family to the Ottomans.
Not much is known about Bayezid, other than the fact that he would be seen as a more popular choice instead of Selim II. According to the Sultan's Harem by Colin Falconer, everyone had expected Bayezid to become Sultan when Mustafa died because of his military talent. There was even a section in that book where Bayezid was portrayed as a more energetic man while Selim was portrayed as a fat kid who kept on snacking. How a possible Bayezid III's reign would have turned out.......if he had an anger problem, the Ottoman Empire would probably fall apart by say, the 1700s.
3) Prince Cihangir: I am intrigued by this man, to be honest. The little prince who was born as a hunchback with several health issues had an uncanny intellect. Now a quick glance at Cihangir and one would assume that he'd have a bad reign that ends with his death from health complications.Because of his back problems, Cihangir wouldn't last long on the battlefield. Yet there is a positive side to the crippled Cihangir: no one would seriously consider him as a threat to any ambition. A little tragic ending though: Cihangir actually died of grief after Mustafa was assassinated on Suleiman's orders. So we're talking about a little brother whose grief was too much that he later joined his big brother in the afterlife.
A simple Point of Divergence in this case will be that Suleiman manages to calm him down, and also if both Selim and Bayezid were to die in their power struggles for the throne. Had Cihangir's succession been successful, he would definitely not launch any military campaign at all. (Remember, he might not survive as a warrior on the battlefield due to his back problems) However, with Cihangir's intellectual powers he might have accomplished a lot of things on the domestic front.
Overall, the man who should have been the next Sultan after Suleiman will obviously be Mustafa. Yet I would wager on Cihangir as the most unlikely but idealistically successor to his father's reign because we are talking about an empire that will definitely need to rest after a long series of campaigns on two fronts.
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Please be advised that this blog is based on a similar question posted in alternatehistory.com, so any tidbits read in this blog may be similar to the ones in that website.
